Let me start with a confession. "Putin would never do this," I've thought numerous times. He then goes ahead and does it.
"Surely he'd never annex Crimea?" Yes, he did.
"In the Donbas, he'd never launch a conflict." Yes, he did.
"He would never invade Ukraine on a large scale." He's done it.
I've come to the conclusion that "would never do" does not apply to Vladimir Putin.
And this poses a troubling question:
"He'd never be the one to activate the nuclear detonator first. Would he do it?"
This isn't a hypothetical question. Russia's president has just put his country's nuclear forces on "special" notice, blaming Nato leaders for making "aggressive statements" about Ukraine.
Pay attention to what President Putin has to say. When he announced his "special military operation" (in actuality, a full-scale invasion of Ukraine) on television last Thursday, he issued a scary warning:
"Anyone considering intervening from the outside should be aware that if they do, they would face consequences unlike any other in history."
Dmitry Muratov, the head editor of the Novaya Gazeta newspaper, believes that Putin's statements seem like a direct threat of nuclear war.
"Putin wasn't acting like the master of the Kremlin in that TV address, but the master of the planet; in the same manner that the owner of a shiny automobile flaunts his keychain around his finger, Putin flaunted the nuclear button. He's stated it before: if Russia doesn't exist, why do we need the planet? Nobody was paying notice. However, there is a threat that if Russia is not treated the way Putin desires, everything will be destroyed."
"If someone decides to demolish Russia, we have the legal right to respond," President Putin said in a 2018 documentary. Yes, it will be a disaster for humans as well as the rest of the globe. But I am a Russian citizen and the country's president. Why do we require a world devoid of Russia?"
Let's fast forward to the year 2022. Putin has started a full-scale war against Ukraine, but the Ukrainian armed forces are fighting back; Western nations have banded together to apply potentially crushing economic and financial sanctions against Moscow, much to the Kremlin's surprise. The Putin regime's very existence may have been called into question.
"Putin is in a pickle," says Pavel Felgenhauer, a Moscow-based defence researcher. "Once the West freezes the assets of the Russian Central Bank and Russia's financial system implodes, Putin won't have many options." The system will become unworkable as a result of this.
"One alternative for him is to slash gas supply to Europe in the hopes of persuading the Europeans to back down. Another alternative is to test what happens if a nuclear weapon is detonated someplace over the North Sea between the United Kingdom and Denmark."
Would someone in Vladimir Putin's inner circle try to persuade him not to use nuclear weapons? Or do you want to stop him?
Dmitry Muratov, a Nobel Laureate, argues, "Russia's political elites are never with the people." "They always take the ruler's side."
And the dictator in Vladimir Putin's Russia is all-powerful. There are few checks and balances in this country, and the Kremlin is in charge.
"No one is prepared to confront Putin," Pavel Felgenhauer argues. "We're in a precarious situation."
Vladimir Putin is at the helm of the conflict in Ukraine. Ukraine's future as an independent nation will be jeopardised if the Kremlin leader fulfils his military objectives. If he is considered to be failing and suffers large casualties, the Kremlin may be forced to take more drastic measures, according to the worry.
Especially if "would never do" doesn't apply anymore.
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